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Friday, March 5, 2010
Monday, July 13, 2009
Stock Sector TradeGroup MarketCycle360 signals sell "Financial"for gain YTD 8% vs S+P -2%
My Model Tradegroup "Sector stocks" signalled SELL in Finacial ( FNM-Fannie Mae) for a +3.6% Gain in 7 days of trading. ( risk trailing at 4% Trailing on platform)
The Next Momentum stock area is "Consumers"..will follow this trend and let you know outcome in coming weeks
A Good best practice is to now put a group of consumer stocks and let MC360 runs its course to select the "best stock with-in this sector".
Below is the Model TradeGroup that I have set up so far ( we have over 100+ of these)
*** Please click on image to make clearer****
Below is the Trades YTD so far that MC360 triggered ( please click on image to make clearer)
The Monday Recap of whats is happening in Data:
"ECONOMISTS stoked up hopes of a recovery in the US economy as hopes grew that retail sales and factory data would this week point to a further improvement in the state of the world's biggest economy.
Following poor consumer sentiment data and falling stock prices last week, economists are hopeful that fresh data will show that retail sales in the US increased in June for a second straight month and factory production fell at a slower pace as the recession abated.
Sales gained 0.4pc after a 0.5pc increase in May, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey before the Commerce Department's official report tomorrow. The next day, Federal Reserve figures may show industrial output fell 0.6pc last month after a 1.1pc drop in May.
Consumers are venturing back into stores, seeking discounts and favouring necessities such as food or fuel. But even though the projected increase in sales and reports this week on housing may show the worst of the downturn has passed, a turnaround is likely to be gradual.
"The spending is more on staples than discretionary purchases," Tom Porcelli, a senior economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said last week. "Aggregate demand is still amazingly weak. Things aren't falling apart, but don't expect a robust recovery."
Losses
An index of consumer confidence dropped last week on concerns about job losses, sending stocks lower. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index closed at 879.13 in New York last Friday, down 0.4pc from the previous day, capping its fourth straight weekly loss. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.5 percent to 8146.52.
Activity in housing and construction may also show signs of bottoming out.
A Commerce Department report due on Friday may show builders broke ground on houses at a 528,000 annual rate in June, after a 532,000 pace the prior month and compared with a record-low 454,000 in April, according to the survey. Building permits, which point to future construction, are also likely to rise.
The deterioration in industrial production may ease as companies, which have been slashing output to get rid of excess inventories, make progress in bringing stockpiles closer to demand. Still, the report may also show capacity utilisation continued to decline, economists said.
US car dealers struggled last month, as sales dropped to a 9.7 million annual pace from a 9.9 million rate in May.
Sales plunged 42pc from a year earlier at Auburn Hills, Michigan-based Chrysler Group, and dropped 34pc at General Motors, located in Detroit.
Excluding automobiles, retail sales probably rose 0.5pc in June, matching the gain in the prior month. "
Will keep you posted on earlier blogs with updates on ealier trades
Best and Happy Trading
The Next Momentum stock area is "Consumers"..will follow this trend and let you know outcome in coming weeks
A Good best practice is to now put a group of consumer stocks and let MC360 runs its course to select the "best stock with-in this sector".
Below is the Model TradeGroup that I have set up so far ( we have over 100+ of these)
*** Please click on image to make clearer****
Below is the Trades YTD so far that MC360 triggered ( please click on image to make clearer)
The Monday Recap of whats is happening in Data:
"ECONOMISTS stoked up hopes of a recovery in the US economy as hopes grew that retail sales and factory data would this week point to a further improvement in the state of the world's biggest economy.
Following poor consumer sentiment data and falling stock prices last week, economists are hopeful that fresh data will show that retail sales in the US increased in June for a second straight month and factory production fell at a slower pace as the recession abated.
Sales gained 0.4pc after a 0.5pc increase in May, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey before the Commerce Department's official report tomorrow. The next day, Federal Reserve figures may show industrial output fell 0.6pc last month after a 1.1pc drop in May.
Consumers are venturing back into stores, seeking discounts and favouring necessities such as food or fuel. But even though the projected increase in sales and reports this week on housing may show the worst of the downturn has passed, a turnaround is likely to be gradual.
"The spending is more on staples than discretionary purchases," Tom Porcelli, a senior economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said last week. "Aggregate demand is still amazingly weak. Things aren't falling apart, but don't expect a robust recovery."
Losses
An index of consumer confidence dropped last week on concerns about job losses, sending stocks lower. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index closed at 879.13 in New York last Friday, down 0.4pc from the previous day, capping its fourth straight weekly loss. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.5 percent to 8146.52.
Activity in housing and construction may also show signs of bottoming out.
A Commerce Department report due on Friday may show builders broke ground on houses at a 528,000 annual rate in June, after a 532,000 pace the prior month and compared with a record-low 454,000 in April, according to the survey. Building permits, which point to future construction, are also likely to rise.
The deterioration in industrial production may ease as companies, which have been slashing output to get rid of excess inventories, make progress in bringing stockpiles closer to demand. Still, the report may also show capacity utilisation continued to decline, economists said.
US car dealers struggled last month, as sales dropped to a 9.7 million annual pace from a 9.9 million rate in May.
Sales plunged 42pc from a year earlier at Auburn Hills, Michigan-based Chrysler Group, and dropped 34pc at General Motors, located in Detroit.
Excluding automobiles, retail sales probably rose 0.5pc in June, matching the gain in the prior month. "
Will keep you posted on earlier blogs with updates on ealier trades
Best and Happy Trading
Friday, July 10, 2009
China Bear Run- FXP Signal June 29 2009
Markets especially in the China economy are starting to change. My Marketcycle360 TradeGroup
'China Bull/Bear' (FXI/FXP)triggered the short FXP June 29th 2009 at the closing price $11.95.
As of the trading week 7/10/2009 a gain of 8.7% in 12 days!
***update trade 7/13/2009 went to 13.13 on the closing..9.9% since trigger signal
***Notice on trades below it had the Run up in the China Index..up till end June 2009***
Below is the the most recent trades in this Bull/Bear TradeGroup ( FXP/FXI)
Click on image to make it clearer:
The ETF corner has the short commented as well
http://etfstocks.typepad.com/markets/2009/06/fxp-double-short-china-looking-good-.html As China continues to promote economic development and the prosperity of its economy and exchange traded funds (ETFs), could protectionism be emerging?
The nation has started to adopt policies that aimed at encouraging exports while curbing imports by expanding three programs to help exporters, states Keith Bradsher of The New York Times. The three programs include offering large tax rebates, more generous loans from state-owned banks to finance trade and more government paid travel to promote themselves at trade shows around the world.
In an effort to strengthen its own exporters, China has gone as far as to limit the amount of certain raw materials that can leave the country. To stir up even more controversy, provincial governments have cut back on their enforcement of counterfeiting laws other intellectual property protections, making imports less appealing because of higher costs than Chinese counterfeits. Lastly, China has halted the rise of the renminbi against the dollar by intervening heavily in currency markets, dumping billions in renminbi and buying dollars and other currencies.
On the one hand, these acts and policies can help ensure that China’s economy will continue to grow. On the other hand, it will increase global trade tensions at a time when more countries are resorting to administrative measures to restrict trade and the World Trade Organization has warned against protectionism. The European Union has already filed a complaint with the WTO accusing China of limiting exports such as zinc and bauxite, of which China is the world’s largest producer, to give an unfair advantage to Chinese manufacturers that use the materials.
iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (FXI): up 30.9% year-to-date. MC360 got into this and just recently got into a short position.
Will keep you posted on the China Cycle !
Best
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Black Gold Slides South- MC360 got me out 25% gain
What a ride Oil had on exchanges in the last month from June through to mid July.
Sliding over 20% meeting levels not seen since May.
click on image above for sharper image of MarketCycle360 trades on this Oil Trade
My Oil Trade Group ( long /short) got the Trade out at May 18th ( DIG) for a nice gain
Over 25% Gain since April!
MarketCycle360 read the underlying trend and signalled to sell out from oil(long)
Oil dropped more than 4% near $60 a barrel Wednesday after a U.S. government report showed that distillate stocks have risen near a 25-year high, reinforcing worries about a potential economic rebound.
U.S. crude fell $2.79, or almost 3%, to settle at $60.14 a barrel Wednesday.
That's the lowest settle price since May 19, when crude ended at $59.65 a barrel Wednesday.
"This market was already in a downward mood and this report did nothing to alleviate this situation ... distillate stocks are showing signs that the economy has not had any real improvements yet," said Mike Zarembski, senior commodities analyst at optionsXpress in Chicago.
Distillate stocks, including diesel, the primary fuel of industry, climbed by 3.7 million barrels last week, compared with an expected 2-million-barrel rise, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly report.
The data also showed gasoline stocks had risen by 1.9 million barrels despite the Fourth of July holiday weekend which is traditionally the peak travel weekend of the summer driving season.
"It looks like we're going to make it through the summer driving season with ample supplies and that's definitely not bullish for this market," Zarembski said.
Oil prices have dropped from peaks above $70 a barrel last month, the highest this year, as expectations of an economic recovery have faltered and U.S. fuel stocks have risen in line with subdued demand.
Producer group OPEC in its 2009 World Oil Outlook released Wednesday said consumption of its crude would not return to 31 million barrels per day (bpd), the level it averaged in 2008 before the economic crisis cut oil use, until 2013.
Regulatory fears
Commodities, including oil, were also pressured by a statement from the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) this week that it was considering tougher position limits to try to curb speculation.
Market players were also monitoring the meeting of the Group of Eight major industrialized nations in the central Italian city of L'Aquila, which continues until Friday, where the group called for reduced volatility in energy markets.
However, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev told the summit that it was impossible to regulate oil prices via administrative measures and said the fair price for oil would be $70-$80 per barrel.
U.S. crude fell $2.79, or almost 3%, to settle at $60.14 a barrel Wednesday.
That's the lowest settle price since May 19, when crude ended at $59.65 a barrel Wednesday.
"This market was already in a downward mood and this report did nothing to alleviate this situation ... distillate stocks are showing signs that the economy has not had any real improvements yet," said Mike Zarembski, senior commodities analyst at optionsXpress in Chicago.
Distillate stocks, including diesel, the primary fuel of industry, climbed by 3.7 million barrels last week, compared with an expected 2-million-barrel rise, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly report.
The data also showed gasoline stocks had risen by 1.9 million barrels despite the Fourth of July holiday weekend which is traditionally the peak travel weekend of the summer driving season.
"It looks like we're going to make it through the summer driving season with ample supplies and that's definitely not bullish for this market," Zarembski said.
Oil prices have dropped from peaks above $70 a barrel last month, the highest this year, as expectations of an economic recovery have faltered and U.S. fuel stocks have risen in line with subdued demand.
Producer group OPEC in its 2009 World Oil Outlook released Wednesday said consumption of its crude would not return to 31 million barrels per day (bpd), the level it averaged in 2008 before the economic crisis cut oil use, until 2013.
Regulatory fears
Commodities, including oil, were also pressured by a statement from the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) this week that it was considering tougher position limits to try to curb speculation.
Market players were also monitoring the meeting of the Group of Eight major industrialized nations in the central Italian city of L'Aquila, which continues until Friday, where the group called for reduced volatility in energy markets.
However, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev told the summit that it was impossible to regulate oil prices via administrative measures and said the fair price for oil would be $70-$80 per barrel.
Happy Trading
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